What Are the Odds?

About one out of every three people in the United States thinks that winning the lottery is the only way to become financially secure. But the odds of winning a single state lottery are about 18 million to 1.

That’s why I laugh at my friends who buy lottery tickets—to me, it’s just throwing money away. The likelihood you’ll be killed by lightning is roughly 2,650,000 to 1—a lot more likely than winning the lottery.

Have you ever wondered how the odds stack up against each other? For instance, did you know that your odds of winning an Olympic medal are roughly the same as drowning in the bathtub? Check out these odds:





Odds of dying from a dog bite: 1 in 20 million
Odds of becoming a saint: 1 in 20 million

Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Odds you will be injured by a toilet this year: 1 in 10,000
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on the first try: 1 in 10,000

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Odds of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Odds of dying from Measles: 1 in 300,000,000

Odds of a child being in a fatal automobile accident: 1 in 23,000
Odds of being wrongly declared dead by a Social Security data entry mistake: 1 in 23,483

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 1 in 220
Odds of dating a millionaire: 1 in 215

Odds of getting AIDS from heterosexual sex without using a condom: 1 in 5,000,000
Odds of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 1 in 11,500

15 readers liked this story.
From Around the Web:
06.27.2011
Gabriel Oakes
You know, you can write these articles without using BS numbers. for example, the US had just under 300, 000, 000 people in 2005 and just over 16 000 murders. That same year over 42 000 people died in car accidents. Yet you have posted better odds of being murdered, when you are nearly three times more likely to die in a car accident. We'll not even get into the president one, since there have been less than 50 in the history of the nation. I don't want to be the person to look up how many citizens there have been in that time...
06.20.2011
Dayron Dias
the odds that all of this is made up 1:1
That comment is actually refuting Fulano, not Ricardo. My mistake.
I'd like to clarify something, since there seems to be a mistake in Ricardo's logic. Let's say there's a lottery where the chance of winning the jackpot is exactly 1 in 1 million. Your assertion that the odds of winning are the same whether you buy 1 ticket for each of 800 lotteries or 800 tickets for 1 lottery is not true. The first case, where you buy 1 each time for 800 tries has a 1 - (999999/1000000)^800 chance of winning, and the second case is (1/1000000) * 800 chance of winning. Those numbers are not the same. Think about it intuitively if you don't feel like calculating the answer. Let's say you buy 1 ticket for each of 1 million consecutive lotteries. The odds of winning are <100% because while the odds are low that you would lose all 1 million times, it still is a possibility. On the other hand, if you buy 1 million unique tickets to one lottery, you are guaranteed victory, as there are only 1 million possible permutations of numbers.
07.10.2010
Rauno
I would like to notify you all that this 'odds' thing has n o t h i n g to do with skill or lifestyle at all. First comparison - dog bite vs becoming a saint - nobody wants to get bitten by dog, but some do want to become a saint. And another - dying from shark attack - odds don't count whether you even go to water or fight with a shark or actually if you would even die on that day, but odds are 1:300 000 000 that you will. And Lena, I guess that 'writing a bestseller' does also count the ones that can't write at all. But on the same time, I guess that dating with a millionaire only counts the ones that date. =) Have an odd day.
It feels good to write.

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