The AMPTP members and leaders are gaining confidence that strike economics and politics are swinging in their favor. The Directors Guild is entering into early discussions with the AMPTP to resolve their issues prior to their own strike deadline next June. The Directors have conducted extensive research that reportedly argues in favor of a more moderate negotiating position than that taken by the WGA. Late night talk shows are returning to the air, and striking writers who are being economically hurt realize the networks and studios have no incentive to be conciliatory.
As we have reported, while it is reasonable for writers to get a piece of the digital action, the digital marketplace is in its infancy and studios and networks are not yet able to determine future economics. Yet, they are making money. Ironically, the strike will drive consumers to view more off-network programming online, on iPod and mobile phones, and through the purchase of DVDs. Writers won’t get their fair share of these increased online, mobile and iPod revenues. Their premature concessions on DVD revenues in their 1988 strike is writers’ “Remember the Alamo” call to action that keeps them on the picket lines today. In future years, they hope, as networks and studios reap billions from ancillary revenue streams, the writers are insisting through their strike that they not be left out in the cold.
To accomplish their goals, they will need a strong backbone and the organizational will power to sustain the strike well into the new year. Their adversaries do not expect them to have that staying power. There are only four realistic scenarios. One, the writers concede most of their demands and return to work in January. Two, the advertisers and media agencies step in and offer to mediate and help fund a solution through a Strike Tax. Three, the strike continues into the Summer and the networks introduce some new formula that concedes a share of unknown gross profits after having completely disrupted the business and accelerated major industry restructuring. And finally, the courts intercede and empower the WGA to negotiate with individual studios and networks, changing the power structure. The only solution that offers a win-win-win for the AMPTP, the WGA and other unions, plus advertisers is option number two: the advertisers step in. With option one, the inevitable is simply delayed for a few years. With option three and four, the writers gain a Pyrrhic Victory but the industry suffers and advertisers suffer.
By Jack Meyers
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